A budget that accelerates fiscal consolidation would give more support to the Indian rupee in the near term, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who forecast the currency would erase a fifth of last year's losses over the next 12 months.
, exacerbated by rising oil prices - India's biggest import bill - pushed the rupee down over 10% last year, its worst annual performance since 2013.
The rupee , which has depreciated every year over the last decade barring 2017, is forecast to rebound and gain about 2% to 81.00 in a year from about 82.56 on Thursday, the Jan. 3-5 poll of over 34 foreign exchange analysts showed. "Even in the worst case scenario, where you see a deep recession in the U.S., the Fed hikes rates to 6%-6.5%, the commodity prices spike up again or there are geopolitical tensions - I think the rupee then moves to above 84-85."
When asked what was the greater risk to their rupee forecasts over the coming year, respondents were nearly split with nine predicting it ends higher than they foresee and seven saying lower.
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