Forecasters around the world have been raising concerns about the effect of COVID-19 on forecast accuracy
The new study, by Dr Ying Chen of the Lancaster University Environment Centre, compared the accuracy of Australia’s forecasts from March to May in 2017 and 2019, with forecasts made between March and May this year, when global air travel had been cut by 50 to 75 per cent.Todd Lane, a professor in atmospheric sciences and meteorology at the University of Melbourne, said the study's findings were “plausible.
Professor Lane said satellites were playing a bigger role in weather forecasting, meaning aircraft data no longer played such a key role. Craig Bishop, a professor of weather prediction at the University of Melbourne, said Australia had fewer flights than Europe – even before COVID-19 – so flight data had played a smaller role in the Bureau of Meteorology's models.“Pre-COVID, the northern hemisphere, the atmosphere is full of aeroplanes. In the southern hemisphere, aeroplanes are relatively sparse," he said.
Professor Bishop said he had done some informal work with the Bureau of Meteorology in March, and found that "it was going to be really difficult to detect the impact of losing the aircraft data."Trump Biden 2020 Our weekly newsletter will deliver expert analysis of the race to the White House from our US correspondent Matthew Knott. Sign up for
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