With ‘CODA’ surging in the Oscar race, HWD’s experts take a closer look at its realistic odds.
has found a new consensus favorite.long circled the role, but while they can’t entirely be counted out, the Sundance sensation turned Apple TV+ breakoutis now outpacing them, coming off of a SAG Award win for best ensemble and a series of events where industry peers couldn’t seem to get enough of it. It’s a groundbreaking film, featuring a predominantly deaf lead cast with dialogue mostly signed, but also an affecting crowd-pleaser. In other words, its ingredients have proven hard to resist.
After all, these aren’t random, coincidental data points. The Academy—unlike SAG-AFTRA, which comprises actors and other on-camera personalities—is a diverse body representing many disciplines of filmmaking in significant numbers. A movie receiving nominations from only one or two branches likely faces an uphill climb to the top; the more branches that nominate you, the more likely they all are to vote for you in best picture.
out of the running for best picture. However, while for now they’re enough to keep me from predicting the movie will triumph, there is also a compelling case to be made for its ability to defy those steep odds.These two heartwarming family tales were both made on small budgets, launched to ecstatic reactions out of the Sundance Film Festival, and sustained by industry adoration that developed gradually. Both went into wide release in August. Both won SAG’s ensemble award.
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