Large Iraqi protests have helped some anti-establishment independent groups emerge from the peripheries. Can they influence the upcoming elections?
The walls of Baghdad are covered with posters of Iraq’s former leaders, especially Nouri al Maliki and Haidar al Abadi, as the country moves toward its early elections on October 10. Both men however were forced out of power for their incompetence, and yet they are leading in the country’s two powerful Shia blocks.
As a result, the only measure of whether anything can change in Iraqi politics or not depends on the voter turnout, which could give independents more seats in the parliament, according to Karaalp. “Large protests were the open manifestations of people’s anger toward the establishment,” Salihi tellsHe also criticises the government’s division of Kirkuk into three different election districts, where diverse populations are not represented in a fair sense.
There are also two other powerful Shia groups: the State of Law Alliance, led by former Prime Minister Maliki and the Alliance of National State Forces, which is co-led by former Prime Minister Abadi and Sayyed Ammar al Hakim, a prominent Shiite leader. The main competition is going to be between anti-Iran Sadr and pro-Tehran Shia political groups like Ameri’s Badr Brigade and Maliki’s bloc, according to analysts. “While Maliki himself is not a candidate, his posters are all over the place, giving anyone an impression as if he’s a candidate,” Kayaalp views.
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