HTS met little resistance when entering Aleppo, but Assad may still be able to gather military support to defend the capital
A Syrian opposition fighter sits in the cockpit of a Syrian airforce plane at Hama military airport, Syria, 6 Dec, 2024.A Syrian opposition fighter sits in the cockpit of a Syrian airforce plane at Hama military airport, Syria, 6 Dec, 2024.appears unstoppable. On Friday, the columns of pick up trucks and motorbikes of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and their allies were reported to have reached the outskirts of the city of Homs, only 170kms from Damascus, the capital.
“The question is whether they can continue the momentum and go to Damascus. It looks like a huge groundswell of support for what’s happening and that reveals the brittle nature of the regime,” saidHTS, a former branch of al-Qaeda, has made efforts to soften its sectarian image and, possibly, ideology.
But anyone hoping for a decisive outcome in coming days or even weeks may be disappointed. The rebels may not even have thought they could seize Aleppo so swiftly when they launched their offensive last week, and have come a long way very quickly. It is not clear that they will be able to use the heavy weapons or other equipment they have seized, and success could expose the deep divisions between their various factions.
Moscow, a key backer which provided much of the firepower that turned the tide of the civil war in Assad’s favour, is distracted by Ukraine but is unlikely to abandon its investment in Syria outright. Tehran too, though weakened by the ongoing conflict with Israel, will do what it can after decades of support for the Assad family.
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