Canada's second-quarter GDP report, due on Friday, is likely to show a sharp slowdown in economic growth, a Reuters poll of economists showed, which could lead the Bank of Canada to pause its interest rate hikes despite recent hotter inflation data.
to a 22-year high of 5% in July. The central bank has said it would study economic data closely before determining whether it raises interest rates further.
Some of the expected slowdown in the second quarter could be down to transitory factors, such as wildfires, maintenance on energy projects and a civil servants strike, which could mean that a preliminary estimate for July, due for release the same day as the quarterly data, will also be key for the rate outlook, say analysts.
Money markets see a roughly 70% chance that the BoC will move to the sidelines in September but lean toward further tightening by the end of the year, which would result in interest rates peaking at 5.25% in the current cycle.
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