Russia has a major strategic vulnerability: overdependence on fossil-fuel exports, which generated nearly $150 billion in the first 100 days of the war.
Four months into the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian army continues to grind its way relentlessly through the Donbas region. Some Western commentators are calling for more weapons to be supplied faster to Ukrainian forces. This is without question necessary to stop Putin, but is it sufficient to stop him soon – and in such a way that he doesn’t merely pause to re-equip before starting a new wave of bloody aggression?.
It is unlikely the Russian regime could continue fighting on that basis. Without exports, a country has no hard currency – and no way to buy supplies of any kind from abroad.Why, then, is the world unwilling to take such measures immediately under current conditions, when Putin’s forces are targeting and killing unarmed civilians on a massive scale?
The price cap is a new idea, and any such policy innovation requires working out many details. There is also an international coalition to be built. But what is being asked of countries such as India and China is quite reasonable: demand a bigger discount on the oil they are already receiving from Russia.
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