Our betting analysts answer some of the most pressing questions surrounding Thursday night's matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos.
The Chiefs have won 14 straight meetings against the Broncos outright, going 9-5 ATS in that span. How are you betting this game?I'm still picking against the Broncos' historically horrible defense. Mahomes should have eons of time to throw, as the Chiefs rank second in pass block win rate while the Broncos' pass rush is 29th. I also think this is a good game for the Chiefs' defense to shine a bit.
The Broncos' win total is now set at 4.5 games. Do you think they're going to get there after such a nightmare start to 2023?In general, defense is less consistent than offense. Many of the worst defensive starts in history were followed up by that defense playing badly, but not too badly, the rest of the way. So I do think the Broncos' defense will improve. The smart simulations say the Broncos are more likely to hit 4.5 than to not -- but not by much.
There aren't many less fun bets than this one: a good pass rusher on a heavy favorite going against a QB that has a propensity for being taken down by defenders. But if you're not going to watch the game , I have this as a really nice value, with a 56% chance Jones goes under, removing pushes.There is a good chance Pacheco scores the first touchdown for the Chiefs.
Mahomes is an absolute machine at avoiding sacks, with a league-best 2.0% sack rate on his dropbacks. Allen is a nice player but his 14% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranks just 18th with 1.5 sacks. Put those two things together and I have -180 as a nice little value.
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