OPINION: The first high-level meeting between Australian and Chinese ministers in years is a diplomatic advance, but any further progress beyond improved atmospherics will be strictly limited.
Under the Morrison government, the language hardened to ensure there could be no doubt that Australia regarded China as the primary threat and would not accede to its bullying. Beijing’s decision to go on the offensive and ban billions of dollars of Australian exports from wine to lobsters ensured Canberra’s arguments against China’s economic coercion became ever harsher – and were shared widely with other sympathetic governments.
They are likely to be more vocal now in welcoming any signs of improvement in the relationship. China’s new ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, had already softened the “wolf warrior” tone of his predecessor. In a Chinese version of a charm offensive, this includes trips to states like Western Australia to engage in friendly meetings with premiers and business leaders.
For Labor, and for Marles himself, previously condemned by the Coalition for not understanding the threat China poses, the meeting allows the minister to claim the vindication of a new government delivering change. But the Albanese government also appreciates the political risks of any suggestion this requires Australia to alter its views on China’s behaviour or concede any matter of substance.
There’s no hint of any lifting of China’s bans on billions of dollars of Australian exports, for example.