China has built and maintained a fortress against COVID, even as the rest of the world puts down its defences. But these rising Omicron cases are its biggest challenge since the dark days of Wuhan.
Beyond this outbreak, though, the future is more uncertain. Dr Zhang Wenhong, an influential epidemiologist, has pointed out that for fully vaccinated people, the risk of severe disease and death from COVID is less than flu - potentially pointing towards a less heavy-handed approach from China.. After two years of success in managing the virus, the city is now experiencing the worst death rate on record globally for the pandemic.
The death rate in Hong Kong is because of the low rate of vaccination amongst the elderly. Omicron may be less severe than other variants, but it is still lethal for unvaccinated older people.And China is in a similar spot. Half of over-80s - some 15 million people - are not fully vaccinated. And its health care system is similarly unequipped to deal with a large influx of patients. It is a tinderbox waiting to be lit.
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