Barclays downgraded its 2022 growth forecast to 4.3 per cent, far shy of the Chinese government’s 5.5 per cent target.
The prospect of sweeping COVID-19 lockdowns in Beijing and other large cities across China has forced investors, analysts and economists to scale back growth forecasts for the world’s second-largest economy and Australia’s top trading partner.
in part because of China’s zero-case approach to the pandemic and the effects of the Ukraine war, which has pushed up the price of energy commodities. “We think any imminent large-scale removal of lockdown measures is unlikely in April,” Ms Chang said. “Disruptions to consumption and services will remain significant through the month.”Barclays anticipates that the country’s zero-case approach to COVID-19 “would be broadly maintained through the [Chinese autumn] of 2022,” in part because official publications have attempted to bolster popular support for the policy.
“Housing market activity indicators continued to deteriorate in March despite more city-specific easing of housing policies,” Ms Chang said. “Sharp weakness was seen in various leading indicators, including deeper contractions in new starts and home sales.”as worries grew that the country would impose fresh pandemic lockdowns in Beijing, mirroring the harsh restrictions placed upon Shanghai over the past month that have kept residents shut indoors.
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