Today's problem, which China has acknowledged, is a lack of confidence.
That could send the economy spiraling down in a vicious cycle. And it could just as easily bounce back in a virtuous cycle. "If the economy does badly, confidence is weak. If confidence is weak, spending is low," said Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University. If "spending is low, the economy does badly." The result of ongoing uncertainty is companies in China are pulling back on hiring and future investments.
The nature of China's economic recovery over the last few months from Covid have unique characteristics that aren't easily captured in broad strokes, Goldman Sachs' Andrew Tilton and a team pointed out back in late May. Covid hit the services sector the hardest, and its rebound just benefits specific companies – rather than a network of supply chain businesses, the analysts said.
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