China is expected to import a record amount of crude oil in 2023 due to increased demand for fuel as people travel more following the dismantling of COVID-19 controls and as a result of new refineries coming onstream, analysts said.
Since the removal of COVID controls in December, China's demand for gasoline and jet fuel has risen.
Sun Jianan, an analyst at Energy Aspects, reckoned gasoline and jet fuel would account for around 50% and 30% of total growth in demand for liquid fuels, respectively. Jet fuel consumption, according to Sun, would reach 90% of pre-COVID levels by end-2023. Demand for diesel - a key industrial and transportation fuel - and petrochemical feedstock naphtha, may grow more slowly as it will take longer for the recovery in China's manufacturing and property sectors to materialize, said FGE analyst Mia Geng and Energy Aspects' Sun.
"Economic stimulus, along with infrastructure expansion in 2023 will set the stage for robust diesel consumption recovery," Wang Zhuwei, an analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insight, said.With domestic consumption rising and lucrative export markets to supply, the four consultancies saw Chinese refineries raising crude throughput by between 850,000 to 1.2 million bpd over 2022 levels, for an increase of between 6% to 9%.
"We've been trying to maximize our operations in January and February, as margins have improved on lower crude cost and sharply rebounding gasoline sales," a Beijing-based state-oil official said.
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