The chance of the global average temperature exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in one of the next five years is now about 50:50, according to a new Met Office study
The chance of the global average temperature exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in one of the next five years is now about 50:50 , according to a new Met Office study.
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, which was produced with the World Meteorological Organisation, also showed a 93% chance that the five-year average global temperature for 2022-2026 will be higher than the average for the last five years . Dr Leon Hermanson, from the Met Office who led today's report, said:"Our latest climate predictions show that continued global temperature rise will continue, with an even chance that one of the years between 2022 and 2026 will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
"A single year of exceedance above 1.5C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5°C could be exceeded for an extended period." In 2021, the global average temperature was 1.1C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the provisional WMO report on the State of the Global Climate.Meanwhile, back-to-back La Niña events at the start and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on global temperatures, but this was only temporary and will not reverse the long-term global warming trend.
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