Modeling study is first to project how global warming will increase animal encounters and virus swapping between species
Over the next 50 years, climate change could drive more than 15,000 new cases of mammals transmitting viruses to other mammals, according to a study published in Nature. It’s one of the first to predict how global warming will shift wildlife habitats and increase encounters between species capable of swapping pathogens, and to quantify how many times viruses are expected to jump between species.
The research predicts that much of the new virus transmission will happen when species meet for the first time as they move to cooler locales because of rising temperatures. And it projects that this will occur most often in species-rich ecosystems at high elevations, particularly areas of Africa and Asia, and in areas that are densely populated by humans, including Africa’s Sahel region, India and Indonesia.
The team built the species-distribution model to predict where mammals would move to find more liveable habitats as the planet warms. The virus-transmission model predicts the probability of a virus jumping between species for the first time, by taking into account where species might meet as their habitats shift and how closely related they are evolutionarily .
Bats are projected to be involved in viral transmission regardless of these factors, the study found. Thought to be part of the origins of COVID-19, bats are known reservoirs of viruses and make up about 20% of mammals. The team says that—in part because bats can fly—they are less likely to experience barriers to shifting their habitats.
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