The latest report from climate scientists finds that six of the nine planetary boundaries established in 2009 have been breached.
— CO2 concentration in the atmosphere < 350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W/m2 in radiative forcing— mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels— less than 5% reduction in total atmospheric O3 from a pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units— limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 and phosphorus— < 15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland— an annual rate of loss of biological diversity of < 10 extinctions per...
“This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped.
“In such a state, global environmental functions and life support systems remain similar to those experienced over the past ~10,000 years rather than changing into a state without analog in human history. This Holocene period, which began with the end of the last ice age and during which agriculture and modern civilizations evolved, was characterized by relatively stable and warm planetary conditions.
He added that failing resilience could make restricting global heating to the 1.5ºC climate goal agreed to in the Paris Climate Accords impossible and could bring the world closer to real tipping points. “If you want to have security, prosperity, and equity for humanity on Earth, you have to come back into the safe space and we’re not seeing that progress currently in the world.”
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