Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is running for Senate against Ted Cruz, who he thinks is uniquely vulnerable. But will this time actually be different?
Five years ago, Beto O’Rourke’s narrow loss to Sen. Ted Cruz seemed to show that, under the right conditions, deep-red Texas could be flipped blue—and that its famously crusading conservative senator was far more vulnerable than he looked.
“To be able to go on vacation, during a statewide crisis, says so much about you, because there are so many things a senator could and should be doing during that time,” Allred said. “To have that idea that might be a good time for you to get away says a lot about your seriousness about the job.” “Unlike Allred, Senator Cruz is proud of his long-standing record fighting for the people of Texas,” Martinez continued. “Since day one, Senator Cruz has been leading the charge in Washington promoting Texas jobs, securing our southern border, keeping our cities safe, and exposing the deep state.”While Allred is explicit about why the Cruz of 2024 is different from the Cruz of 2018, he’s more guarded about the other key dynamic of this race: how he is different from O’Rourke.
Allred, a Black man raised by a single mother who went from playing in the NFL to being a voting rights lawyer, is a polished communicator, said Rottinghaus, someone who “can deliver a really good message, is young and engaging, has a good story, and has bipartisan chops.” O’Rourke, he said, was a “radical, skateboarding quasi-populist” with a rare ability to galvanize a crowd.
Still, it’s likely Allred will have to do much of the lifting on his own, which seems to suit him just fine. The same assessment is shared by others in Republican circles. “Cruz is taking his 2024 race seriously and has put together a top-notch operation,” a national GOP strategist told The Daily Beast.
To Allred, the conspicuous stand rings hollow, and fits with his broader critique of Cruz. “I’m glad to see that he condemned the brutal and terrible law in Uganda, but he’s not willing to disassociate himself from his former podcast co-host who said transgenderism needed to be eradicated,” he said, referencing the right-wing pundit Michael Knowles. “It doesn’t line up and feels inauthentic.”
While Texas is growing more competitive, observers like Rottinghaus say that in order to beat Cruz, Allred will need to pull together a diverse coalition of “moderate suburban voters, Republican women, college-educated younger Republicans, and self-identified independents.” Roland Gutierrez, a state senator who represents the gun violence-scarred community of Uvalde, is reportedly very likely to run against Cruz. Like O’Rourke, he has grabbed headlines for confronting Texas GOP leaders who have refused to pass gun reforms, and could capture enthusiasm among Democratic voters.
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