Brent oil prices are expected to remain around $90 per barrel throughout the next five years, according to my eighth annual survey of energy market professionals.
Forecasts are mostly $4-$10 per barrel above predictions at the time of the 2022 survey, conducted before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and up by around $20 compared with the 2020 survey, before the coronavirus pandemic.
Forecasts for 2023 are tightly clustered, with half of respondents expecting the average price to lie between $80 and $95, and more than 90% expecting the average to lie between $70 and $105. Forecast prices are $15-20 per barrel above where the futures strip was trading at the time of the survey, a similar premium to the one revealed in last year's survey, but up from a premium of around $10 before the pandemic.Understandably, there is more dispersion in forecasts for later years, reflecting greater uncertainty about the evolution of the business cycle and structural changes affecting the industry.
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