Column: Surging copper demand will complicate the clean energy boom.
Copper is one of the essential elements of today’s economy, and tomorrow’s. It’s in the turbines and solar modules that generate electrons, the transmission and distribution lines that carry electricity to consumers, the home wiring that delivers it to dishwashers and iPhones, and the motors that move everything from elevators to electric bicycles.
Demand for copper relating to energy transition activities — clean power and electrified transport, and the infrastructure supporting them — will grow about 4% per year between now and 2040. Demand arising from traditional sources like construction and manufacturing of heating and cooling equipment will grow only 1.5% per year over the same period.
There is a challenge facing this growth trajectory, and it’s not so much acute as it is existential. BloombergNEF expects that primary copper production can increase about 16% by 2040. That increase, needless to say, is rather short of demand. By the early 2030s, copper demand could outstrip supply by more than 6 million tons per year.
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