While some investors are celebrating the surge in gold and oil prices, outperformance of US energy stocks has historically been a bad sign for the US sharemarket.
Already a subscriber?If history is any guide, global sharemarkets could be in for a rough period ahead as gold futures prices hit a fresh record high in trading on Tuesday night, while oil prices have settled just under the $US90 a barrel level.it’s clear that these two markets had been rallying even before Israel’s airstrike on Tehran’s consulate in Damascus last week threatened to escalate the years-long shadow war between Israel and Iran.
And while S&P 500 has managed to climb close to 10 per cent so far this year, its performance has been outstripped by the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, which jumped 14.1 per cent in the same period. Still, the likelihood that central banks will resume their buying on any sign of price weakness is helping to underpin gold prices in much the same way that the belief in the “Fed put” – the assumption the US central bank would step in to support the financial market if prices fell too far – has buoyed those markets.
And there are also worries about tightening oil supplies, as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies limit oil production.
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