Crude Oil prices have managed strong gains, but the market looks heavy up here and may be in some danger of topping out
It is notable that OPEC is a little more optimistic than other oil-watchers, notably the International Energy Agency which expects more subdued demand. Some economists feel that substantial increases in production from non-OPEC sources, notably the United States, will offset the effects of production cuts from traditional producers.
The oil market and all others will have plenty of chances to gauge US economic temperature this week, with producer price, retail sales, and consumer sentiment numbers all still to come. Friday will also bring more market-specific data with the release of the US oil rig count from oil-field services giant Baker Hughes.
A trading band between last week’s high of $80.84 and the first Fibonacci retracement of the climb up to it from the mid-December lows at $77.60 seems to be bounding the market and it will probably be instructive to see which way this channel eventually breaks. Bears have made forays below the base on an intraday basis but so far those falls are reclaimed in short order.
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