Top economist David Rosenberg sounds the recession alarm, pointing to 2 key indicators that are flashing red
Investors hoping the Federal Reserve's war on inflation won't tank the US economy are set to be severely disappointed, David Rosenberg has warned.
"Markets pricing in a 'soft landing'? Will they ever be in for a big surprise," the veteran economist "The boy cried wolf, indeed, but the wolf did show up at the end of the story," Rosenberg added, suggesting that commentators who've been ringing the recession alarm for months will ultimately be proven right.
The Rosenberg Research president and former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch attached two charts to support his pessimistic prediction.The first was the FIBER weekly leading index, a collection of indicators that tends to lead the inflation cycle by several months. It has dropped its lowest level since the pandemic plunge in early 2020, suggesting the inflation threat has faded and the economy has slowed sharply.
The second chart showed the risk of recession based on short-term Treasury spreads is about 100% - greater than during the dot-com and housing bubbles, and the highest level since the 1980s.
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