According to a handful of new research, the number of low-pressure systems around Australia is decreasing, bringing predictions of a future, dryer climate.
Australia's weather maps are changing, and a clear trend is emerging — high pressure is becoming more dominant while the number of low-pressure systems, including tropical cyclones and east coast lows , is declining.
Lows tend to bring soaking falls over a large area, and are therefore responsible for the majority of Australia's widespread heavy rainfall events, as opposed to weather systems like troughs, which often generate erratic, short-lived and isolated bursts of rain. "The trends … are negative across almost all time periods … despite above average frequencies of lows during 2020–2022. This indicates a robust declining trend," Dr Pepler stated.According to the research, since the middle of last century there has been up to a 35 per cent reduction in low pressure systems forming near south-west WA and 30 per cent in the Great Australian Bight from May to October.
"Trends from lows are largest on the east coast, where they explain more than 70 per cent of observed rainfall changes since the 1960s." Dr Pepler said. Despite a similar reduction in November to April lows, the study found changes in warm season rain over southern Australia is far more variable with decreases observed in Tasmania but increases over much of the south-east inland.
This reduction is occurring despite warmer sea surface temperatures as the increased heat to fuel cyclones is being offset by a more stable tropical environment – essentially because warmer air can hold more moisture, there is less opportunity for the necessary condensation step in cyclone formation.
Rain East Coast Lows Tropical Cyclones Forecast
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