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Democrats could take control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterms, with seven races rated as tossups and gains in states such as Georgia and Texas signaling improving chances. A Democratic victory would strengthen congressional oversight of President Donald Trump, block parts of his legislative agenda and complicate Supreme Court and Cabinet appointments.
These graphics explain what the Democrats would need to do to flip the Senate and House of Representatives A turning point in Donald Trump’s second term will soon arrive.
On 3 November, voters across the US will decide whether to keep the president’s Republican allies in control of Congress, or return Democrats to the majority. , and potentially the Senate. Winning either would be a significant victory for the party and give it the power to block Trump’s legislative agenda and more aggressively investigate his administration.
The 2026 midterms offer Democrats the chance to win the Senate, and in turn the ability to put a serious check on Trump's agenda – including blocking any new appointments to the supreme court or his cabinet. Republicans currently hold a majority with 53 seats out of 100, while the Democrats and their allies hold the remaining 47. Thirty-five seats are on the ballot this November. Senators serve six-year terms, with a third facing voters at each two-year election cycle.
The Cook Political Report, a prominent US election forecaster, currently lists seven seats as tossups: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas. Cook Political Report ratings, as of 1 October 2026 At the start of 2026, Republicans appeared well positioned in the battle for the Senate, with many seats rated by Cook as solid for the party and a host of others currently held by Democrats as tossups.
A key example of this is Georgia, which is now rated as a likely win for the Democrats. Cook ratings. Only states that have shifted within the 'Likely', 'Lean' and 'Tossup' categories are included; states shifting from or to the 'Solid' categories are excluded In a further sign of the momentum behind Democrats, Texas, a longstanding Republican stronghold, is considered to be in play this year. Texas offers Democrats the opportunity for a historic victory.
It has been similar in elections for the White House, too. The last time Texans voted for a Democratic president was in the era of Jimmy Carter in the 1970s. Running for this seat is state representative James Talarico. Your browser does not support the video element.
"It's time to start flipping tables," is Talarico’s campaign slogan. The Republican nominee, state attorney general Ken Paxton, has highlighted his close relationship with Trump. The president endorsed Paxton in a video filmed in the Oval Office, in which he praised his work"defend our southern border from the Obama and Biden invasions".
Donald Trump endorsing Ken Paxton in a clip posted on XTalarico's focus on billionaires is echoed in the campaign for another Senate tossup currently held by a retiring Democrat: Michigan. Going up against Republican Mike Rogers is Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Democrat who has been endorsed by figures like Harris and Bernie Sanders.
Michigan is a swing state at the presidential level, but Democrats have a long history of victories to the Senate, while no Republican has won a seat since 1994. Trump has repeatedly broken through there. He won Michigan in 2016 and 2024, but lost the state to Joe Biden in 2020. Galvanising El-Sayed's campaign is his call for Medicare for All.
The former public health official calls for expanding the program for elderly and disabled people to every American. Your browser does not support the video element. Polling suggests close to half of Michigan voters support the idea, though a sizeable number remain opposed. Responses to 'Do you support a single-payer, Medicare for All style system of healthcare?
', September 2026Iowa may also prove to be a big test of Democratic fortunes. The state has grown very Republican since it twice backed Barack Obama, and hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Presidential voting history for Iowa Iowa’s population is far more concentrated in the countryside compared to states currently represented by Democratic senators, so victory would represent a major expansion of the party's coalition.
Guardian analysis of Rural Democracy Initiative figures via the National Conference of State Legislatures Republicans nonetheless dominate the US's rural areas. Most of the 14 states where Cook considers the Republican candidate sure to win are rural. Hinson has been attempting to keep the party’s agricultural base on side by championing the year-round sale of gasoline that contains a higher concentration of biofuel, which could both lower prices at the pump and financially boost farmers.
Hinson speaking in the House in support of the bill Turek, her opponent, is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball. Recently, he released a campaign video where he shoots hoops with Barack Obama, the last Democratic president to win Iowa. As well as these key Senate races, the US House is up for grabs. It, too, is currently controlled by Republicans.
After Trump set off a redistricting war last year, nine states have redrawn congressional boundaries, some to benefit Democrats, others Republicans. Analysis suggests that Republicans will gain more seats overall. This redistricting has been subject to several legal challenges. A Democratic gerrymander in Virginia was struck down by the state supreme court, and the US supreme court rejected a Republican attempt in Missouri.
The Cook Report rates more than 40 races as competitive. In New York City’s exurbs, Republican Mike Lawler hopes to win a third term representing his swing district by turning voters against democratic socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani.
“Socialism, communism and Marxism have no place in New York City and no place in America,” said Lawler, a top target of Democrats. One of nearly two dozen Democrats in districts Trump won in 2024, Marcy Kaptur has represented northwestern Ohio since 1983, the longest-ever tenure for a woman in Congress. Newly redrawn boundaries have increased her district’s Republican lean, making her re-election bid an important test of whether voters are still willing to split their tickets between parties.
The Republican incumbent David Valadao voted for the Trump-backed measure, which extends tax cuts for wealthy people and corporations while slashing the Medicaid program for poor and disabled people. His constituents have some of the highest Medicaid enrollment rates in the country. It’s possible whichever party wins the House achieves only a single-digit majority of seats, as Republicans have had for the past four years.
But there’s also a chance that this year will see a “blue wave” of wins by Democratic candidates even in districts that Trump won by wide margins in 2024. Either way, history favors the party out of power in the midterms, particularly in the battle for the House. All recent presidents have lost control of a chamber in midterm elections, including Trump, in the 2018 election.
Polling shows there has been a nationwide shift towards the Democrats in the run-up to the midterms, even in statesAverage of polls for the 2026 generic congressional ballot, which asks voters at a national level who they intend to vote for in the House midterms Guardian graphic. Source: Silver Bulletin polling average, which weights individual polls based on sample size, recency and pollster rating The events of this year – notably the Iran war and its impact on inflation – have undoubtedly changed the race, and much of the advantage seems to have swung towards the Democrats.
Across all key races, Democratic candidates have been campaigning on affordability, at a time when the Trump administration’s actions in the Middle East have pushed up prices, particularly for gasoline and diesel. It is a reflection of just how concerned US voters are about the economy, rating it as the most important issue in surveys, far ahead of immigration, healthcare or civil rights.
Meanwhile, Trump’s personal ratings have also fallen, with Reuters/Ipsos finding only 32% of US adults now approve of his job performance. That is worse than his previous low of 34%, recorded by Gallup at the end of his first term in 2021 after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. The 2026 midterms may be another brutal reckoning for the US president – the question is whether punishment from voters will lead him to change course.
2026 US Midterms Democratic Party US Senate Congress Donald Trump
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