Ever since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, it seemed possible that Democrats could avoid a midterm disaster. But if the post-Roe summer belonged to Democrats, by mid-October, even they can see the momentum they had is fading.
, just 5 percent of likely voters listed abortion as their most important issue. Forty-four percent cited economic concerns – on which voters favor Republicans over Democrats by a wide margin.
“I think we had three really good weeks in August that everybody patted themselves on the back,” scoffed one Democratic strategist who advises major party donors. “We were like, ‘Yeah, that should be enough to overcome two years of shitty everything’.” Now he said, “It’s not looking great. The best we can hope for right now is a 50-50 Senate, but the House is long gone.”
The midterms were always expected to be punishing for Democrats, with the party in the White House historically suffering midterm election losses. In part, the recent polls are a reflection of that reality coming into view as Election Day nears — that “things are settling a bit into traditional patterns,” said Celinda Lake, a prominent Democratic pollster who advised Biden’s 2020 campaign.
The kind of swing voters who move late in an election, she said, tend to be “very responsive to what they think the most recent turn of events on the economy is going to be, so they’re nervous about inflation and the stock market … They’re nervous about gas prices, and I think that we [Democrats] need to continue to press that we have the better economic agenda.”
Biden is scrambling to do that. Campaigning on the West Coast over the weekend, he insisted that “our economy is strong as hell.” And few Democrats are as distraught today as they were in previous midterm years, including in 2010, when Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House. In the runup to that election,
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