Former President Donald Trump remains the far-and-away front-runner in the Republican primary contest, with a double-digit lead over all opponents.
But Gov. Ron DeSantis is the top second choice of Republican likely voters. The contest becomes much closer when factoring in the number of voters who are still considering DeSantis and those who see him as their second choice.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, agreed that the metric is only really relevant in the case that Trump's stature is weakened in the polls."Monitoring the second choice of Republican voters can give us a sense of who might stand to benefit if Trump falls off. But of course it only matters if indeed Trump does fall off, which does not seem very likely at this point," he said.
But, he reiterated,"We don't know what's going to happen," referencing the unprecedented indictments of Trump. Director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center Andrew Smith agreed that image, and the metrics that define it, is perhaps the best lens to view the race through as it stands now. Part of why Selzer considers these metrics to be valuable in Iowa is because of its caucus format."Things can change in the room on caucus night," she said."That is, people walk in expecting to do something, but they might be persuaded to do something else."
"Looking at these other metrics indicates there's other things out there that we should be paying attention to," Smith said."Does it mean that Donald Trump is going to lose the nomination this time? Not necessarily."
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