Does Box Office Impact a Film’s Oscar Chances?

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Does Box Office Impact a Film’s Oscar Chances?
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Mainstream movies that fail to attract ticket buyers can fall off the Academy’s radar, but the lingering pandemic and rise of streamers make theatrical grosses less of a factor.

debuted at the Telluride Film Festival in early September, it was hailed as a major Oscar contender, with pundits proclaiming Will Smith the best actor frontrunner for his portrayal of Richard Williams, the hard-charging father of tennis greats Venus and Serena Williams. But when the uplifting Warner Bros. drama finally arrived in movie theaters Nov. 19, it suddenly hit a speed bump.

Booked into 3,032 theaters, it grossed just $5.4 million for the weekend, an unimpressive fourth-place showing.‘s Oscar prospects, some handicappers began to apply the brakes. Nate Jones, who writes Vulture.com’s Oscar Futures column, had originally given the movie’s best picture odds an up arrow, then reduced them to even, noting, “It’s not ideal for a purported crowd-pleaser when those crowds do not show up.

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