Does Israel really want to open a two-front war by attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon?

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Does Israel really want to open a two-front war by attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon?
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Israel has cogent reasons for wanting to eliminate the threat from Hezbollah, but previous interventions in Lebanon have come at a cost.

Among the many sayings attributed to Winston Churchill is, “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Why Hezbollah is attacking Israel now Israel has cogent reasons for wanting to eliminate the threat from Hezbollah. Hezbollah has been launching Iranian-supplied missiles, rockets and drones across the border into northern Israel since the Gaza war began on October 8. Its stated purpose is to support Hamas by distracting the IDF from its Gaza operation.

The most far-right members of Netanyahu’s cabinet, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, have openly called for Israel to invade southern Lebanon. Even without this pressure, Netanyahu has ample reason to want to neutralise the Hezbollah threat because residents of northern Israel are strong supporters of his Likud party.

Iran’s interests in the potential for an Israel-Hezbollah war at this time are mixed. It would obviously be glad to see Israel under military pressure on two fronts. But Iranian leaders see Hezbollah as insurance against an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. Lessons from previous Israeli interventions in Lebanon The other factor – especially for wiser heads mindful of history – is the country’s previous interventions in Lebanon have been far from cost-free.

That invasion was only partially successful. Militants soon moved back towards the border and renewed their attacks on northern Israel. In 1982, then-Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin decided to remove the PLO entirely from Lebanon, launching a major invasion of Lebanon all the way to Beirut. This eventually forced the PLO leadership and the bulk of its fighters to relocate to Tunisia.

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