Laws limiting when opinion polls can be published before an election are pretty common outside the U.S. But despite the power the fear that polls can influence votes has to shape law and fuel media narratives, the evidence supporting it is complex.
* “Not applicable” includes countries that have no regulations limiting the publication of polls, as well as countries that don’t conduct public polling and ones that don’t have elections.fuel media narratives
. Prior to 2005, citizens of France who lived in territories west of the country didn’t get to vote until after the mainland election had ended. Thus, they had the chance to see exit polls before they even went to cast their ballots. That changed after 2005, so researchers could compare several years worth of elections and see how knowledge of the presumed winner changed voter behavior. The result: After 2005, there was a nearly 12 percentage point increase in voter turnout.
. Surveys showed that the people given just poll numbers didn’t change their vote intention at all — they looked no different than the group that received no polling information. But a third group, which was presented with a narrative-style interpretation of the polls showing one party gaining ground over time, did change their intended vote, becoming 2 percentage points more likely than the control group to vote for the party that was surging.
Which means the media has a large role to play in how voters hear about which bandwagons to jump on. Van der Meer’s research on those Dutch voters suggests that raw information doesn’t seem to shift votes, but narratives about the informationWhich, of course, brings FiveThirtyEight into the mix. As a publication that, we’re as much a part of this story as we are reporters of it. Nate Silver, our editor in chief, certainly thinks about bandwagons.
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