By the time Trump is sitting at his federal trial on charges of criminally conspiring to overturn the 2020 election, he may have already secured enough delegates to effectively clinch the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nomination.
Donald Trump walks to a waiting vehicle after arriving by private plane at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta on Aug. 24, 2023.
Trump has complained the March 4 start date of the trial amounts to “election interference” and cited Super Tuesday, but it is likely to have a greater effect on his ability to campaign for primaries in subsequent weeks. About 60% of the delegates will be awarded from contests after Super Tuesday. That possibility would almost certainly lead to a schism between Trump loyalists and what used to be called the party’s establishment, an unpleasant reality in which defeating Trump could doom Republicans to a long cycle of electoral defeats.
On Monday night, just hours after Judge Tanya S. Chutkan set the March trial date, one of the main organs of the Republican establishment, The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page, sounded the alarm. The Trump campaign is taking no chances on a contested convention. His team is far more experienced and professional than it was in 2016, when Cruz’s forces organized state party conventions in Louisiana, Colorado and elsewhere to elect Cruz loyalists as convention rules committee delegates.
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