Rishi Sunak left with worst of all worlds as Tory base stays home and Labour and Reform UK rack up votes
in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire did not necessarily change the plight faced by the Conservatives. What they did was shine so bright a beam on the situation that even the most self-deluding Tory MP can no longer pretend.
There are two rejoinders. The first is that even were you to argue that voters are yet to fall in political love with Starmer, if Thursday’s results were replicated in a general election he could probably live with that, given it would shrivel the Tories to a rump of about 130 MPs. At the Conservative party conference in Manchester less than a fortnight ago, ministers peppered their speeches with conspiracy theory-tinged ideas about 15-minutes cities, as well as invented Labour plans to tax meat and some fairly brutal language on transgender issues.
In Tamworth, Reform UK held its deposit, winning 5.4% of the vote to come third. The Conservatives’ 2019 campaign was helped by FarageIn fact, if you were a Conservative MP who felt a hollow pit in your stomach after checking the results on Friday morning, the closer you look, the worse things get.
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