Dow drops to start Q4, but there's a historical case to remain bullish on stocks
Recession red flags have the markets on edge, with the ISM manufacturing index reaching its lowest reading since 2009.
But over the past decade, the fourth quarter of the year has actually been the best for the stock market, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up at least 4% on average, and the financials, industrials and materials sectors posting average gains of more than 6%. Recession red flags are weighing on the stock market, and if you go back a year, fourth quarter 2018 was a painful one for investors. But there is at least one historical reason to remain positive on stocks as the year's final quarter starts: It's been the quarter with the highest average gains over the past decade.has averaged a 4% gain in the final three months of the year over the past decade, according to a CNBC analysis of Kensho, a market data analysis platform.
That excludes the fourth quarter 2018, when stocks were battered and made the biggest contribution to a year in which stocks posted their worst performance in a decade. The S&P 500 and Dow plunged 13.97% and 11.8% in Q4 2018, respectively, their worst performances since 2011. The Nasdaq plunged 17.5% in the period, its biggest quarterly fall since 2008. All three indexes posted losses of near-9% in December 2018 alone.
Volatility is back, with the third quarter a bumpy three-month stretch for stocks, and October has historically beenBut the market has proved to be, in the least, resilient, closing out the third quarter with a slight gain. The S&P 500 and Dow added a little over 1% each. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq slipped a bit lower, falling just short of the break-even level.
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