The initial surveys of people who watched the debate found that most viewers thought Harris won, and the candidate deemed the winner in the post-debate surveys usually tends to gain in the polls.
It’s still too soon to judge the fallout from the presidential debate, but the polls already suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris might be poised to gain.
The current leader in the poll average in five of the seven swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona — is ahead by just 1 point or less.There have been very few post-debate polls in any of the seven states. In fact, many of the changes in our state averages are attributable to polls fielded before the debate, but released after.It’s worth divvying up what’s changed into two groups: the polls fielded before the debate, and the polls since.
These results didn’t shift our state polling averages too much, but they were still good news for Harris — and arguably a bit of a surprise. After all, the polls we’d seen before the debate showed a close and tightening race, with several high-quality outlets —/Siena, YouGov/Economist, Marist, Pew Research and KFF — finding the race within 1 point or so. A close race nationwide might have been expected to yield a clear Trump lead in the battleground states.But that’s not what happened.
On the other hand, debates can create shifts in the political environment that simply don’t last. Just ask Hillary Clinton, who built a big lead after the debates in 2016, only to see it fade in the final week. Something similar happened to Biden in 2020. Either way, it’s an excellent reminder of the limitations of polling. If the election were held on Tuesday, would Harris’ bounce really materialise? Would those undecided Haley voters ultimately vote for Trump, stay home or vote for Harris? Did Harris secure new support from voters who hadn’t heard enough about her, but saw in the debate someone capable of handling the presidency? We just can’t say.
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