El-Erian says it’s ‘way too early’ to say inflation has peaked

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El-Erian says it’s ‘way too early’ to say inflation has peaked
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Mohamed El-Erian said the drivers of inflation are broadening, and a headline print higher than 8.5 per cent is likely later this year.

Mohamed El-Erian, who almost a year ago accurately forecast that elevated US inflation would be persistent, says it hasn’t peaked.

Annual inflation likely climbed at an 8.2 per cent pace in May, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey ahead of the release on Friday. That’s still more than four times the levels seen before the pandemic. While some economists see the Fed’s rate-hike regime as likely to push the US economy into a recession, El-Erian, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says that is his “risk scenario. Stagflation is my base line”.

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