BoM and other agencies expect transition to the first El Niño since spring 2023 sometime during winter
El Niño expected to develop in coming months, bringing hotter and drier weather to eastern AustraliaSign up for climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s free Clear Air newsletter here Australia should prepare for an imminent El Niño, with the Bureau of Meteorology and other agencies forecasting that the weather phenomenon is likely to develop in the coming months.
“The models are really aligning now,” Felicity Gamble, a senior BoM climatologist, said. “We are expecting a transition to El Niño sometime during winter. ”said on Tuesday there was a 90% chance of an El Niño developing in the Pacific before November – a phenomenon that historically has increased the likelihood of hotter and drier conditions for Australia’s east. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation , one of the key drivers affecting global climate.
During an El Niño, sea surface temperatures in a central region of the equatorial Pacific become warmer than average, resulting in a shift in atmospheric circulation. As a result, there is less atmospheric moisture and heavy rainfall over the north of Australia, which shifts to the central and eastern parts of the Pacific.
“In order to really say that an event is established, we also need to see that response in the atmosphere as well,” Gamble said. “We are seeing signs of that, but we’re not quite there yet. ”The BoM last week said that models indicated the forecast El Niño – the first since spring 2023 – would be “at least moderate in strength, with the possibility of a strong event”.
However, Gamble emphasised that the strength of an El Niño does not “necessarily correlate exactly with the strength of the impacts in Australia”, as there were other climate patterns that influenced weather locally, such as the In Australia, El Niño has has tended to result in warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the south of the country, and been linked with an increased risk of drought, heatwaves, bushfires and coral bleaching. For eastern Australia, nine of the 10 driest winter-spring periods on record have occurred during El Niño years.
“An El Niño doesn’t necessarily mean we switch overnight into drought conditions and that we suddenly see increased fire risk – it’s a more nuanced story,” Gamble said. “You’ve got to really take into account some of thoseThe influence of the El Niño in Australia was strongest during winter and spring, and “does tend to back right off in summer” – different to Dr Andrew Watkins, a Climate Councillor and former head of climate prediction at the BoM, said: “Climate change and El Niño are a very dangerous double act.
“Climate change is already pushing us to more time in drought, more bushfire weather and extreme heat. Climate pollution is reinforcing some of these impacts from El Niño. ” He said the strength of the El Niño – assessed by how far above normal sea surface temperatures are in an area in the central tropical Pacific – did “not automatically mean impacts in Australia will follow suit.
For some countries closer to the equator, yes, but for Australia it’s a mixed bag.
“But the reality is that each time we see an El Niño event, it has led to periods of hotter and drier conditions. ” Watkins said climate change was tending to “pump up” existing variability, so that periods of dry became exceptionally dry, and when conditions were good for rainfall this delivered downpours.published by the Columbia Climate School showed a wide range of possibilities for temperatures in the Pacific, but there was almost unanimous agreement that an El Niño would form.
Globally, El Niño can result in extreme rainfall and floods in the southern US and Central America, and failed monsoons on the Indian subcontinent. While Rick waited for his insurance payout, mushrooms sprouted in his flooded Victorian home.
He’s not alone ‘Suddenly, boom, it’s completely warm’: summers are getting longer – especially in Sydney, study findsMan’s body found after being swept away in outback flood watersHow Tropical Cyclone Narelle turned the sky red in Western AustraliaTracing Tropical Cyclone Narelle’s ‘very unusual’ path to hit Australia on three coastlines
Please follow us on Google to support us Australia Latest News, Australia Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Climate change 'loading the dice' as farmers brace for El Nino announcementA formal El Nino declaration could pivot many Australian regions back into prolonged dry spells.
Read more »
How the looming El Nino will be amplified by climate conditionsScientists are poised to declare the emergence of a the weather pattern within days. Here’s why.
Read more »
El Niño Alert: Australia Faces Heightened Risks of Drought, Bushfires, and Extreme Heat Amid Climate CrisisAn El Niño weather event is expected to develop, bringing hotter, drier conditions to Australia. With climate change already raising baseline temperatures, experts warn the combined effect will amplify drought, extreme heat, bushfire danger, reduced snow cover, marine heatwaves, and coral bleaching. The World Meteorological Organization is set to declare the event soon, while Australian authorities predict significant impacts on agriculture, water supplies, and ecosystems.
Read more »
Australia Braces for El Nino Impacts Amid Climate Change AmplificationAustralia faces heightened risks of drought, bushfires, extreme heat, and reduced snow cover as an El Nino event approaches, with climate change worsening its effects. Experts warn that current La Nina years are already hotter than past El Nino years, underscoring the urgency of the situation.
Read more »