Early signs of hot, dry weather caused by El Nino are threatening food producers across Asia, while American growers are counting on heavier summer rains from the weather phenomenon to alleviate the impact of severe drought.
El Nino, a warming of water surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, is expected toin the coming months, according to meteorologists. The impact of the phenomenon typically causes hot, dry weather across Asia and Australia while bringing heavier-than-normal rainfall to the southern U.S. and southern South America.
Lower production of cereals and oilseeds in Asia because of El Nino is likely to heighten food inflation worries for some of the world's most vulnerable consumers, dashing hopes for further relief from lower prices in recent months. Even if the weather pattern ends up boosting crop output in the Americas, the impact in Asia could reverberate across global food markets.
"Concerns around dry weather have heightened as compared with the situation a month ago. The outlook suggests El Nino is developing," said Phin Ziebell, an agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank, noting that Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland have had little rain. However, Sreejith said India could get lucky with a weak El Nino as higher sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and southwesterly winds could bring more rains.In the United States and Argentina, where drought has reduced wheat and soybean crops this year, ample rains forecast in the second half would benefit crops, although overall output will depend on the timing of El Nino.
Meteorologists are divided on how fast the transition to El Nino from the current La Nina, a pattern when Pacific Ocean waters turn colder than normal, will impact U.S. weather, but the shift should be complete during the key development stage for corn and soybeans.
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