El Niño, a recurring climate pattern that periodically disrupts entire ecosystems of marine life and can influence weather events in the United States and across the globe, will 'likely develop' again this summer, NOAA announced on Thursday.
Their estimate has changed slightly since then, with officials at the climate prediction center suggesting in their latest outlook that there is now about a 62% chance El Niño will develop sometime between May and July.
ENSO is defined by sea surface temperatures and precipitation levels across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that depart from the neutral norm, and those departures can swing in either direction depending on whether El Niño or La Niña is active. El Niño is considered the cycle's"warm phase," according to NOAA, when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise and there is more precipitation.
El Niño causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread further east. During winter, this leads to wetter conditions than usual in the Southern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the North., and is known to bring wetter conditions to areas along the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast, causing increased and sometimes disastrous flooding. Northern parts of the U.S. as well as Canada typically see warmer and dryer weather than usual during El Niño.
The warmer phase of ENSO can also have serious consequences for marine life off the Pacific coast, since the shift in ocean temperatures results in fewer phytoplankton in that area, NOAA said. This consequence has a domino effect on creatures up the food chain that rely on what is otherwise nutrient-rich water to survive. Warmer Pacific temperatures can also bring different species of fish, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, to places where the water is usually too cold.
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