Policymakers are counting on electric vehicles to replace oil demand. But data from countries with high EV sales do not show dramatic oil consumption declines.
A big reason oil demand has stayed strong in Norway is that, despite the high penetration of EVs in total car sales, the EV fleet of less than 500,000 still pales to the overall fleet of nearly 3 million vehicles. That means there are still a lot of gasoline- and diesel-powered cars on the road.
The other significant factor in Norway is that the electrification of heavy-duty transportation – especially trucks and buses – has so far been scant, and this sector is critical for lowering overall fuel consumption.... [+]Rystad Energy The key obstacle to electrifying buses and tractor-trailer trucks is the weight of the battery. If these vehicles are too heavy, they can’t perform like their ICE counterparts. Tesla, Volvo, and other automakers are working on the issue, but matching the energy content of a barrel of oil is a stiff challenge.
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