The pendulum in Ethiopia’s civil war has swung wildly in the year since Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, sent troops to crush the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front
BURNT-OUT tanks and freshly dug trenches; makeshift fortifications cobbled out of fieldstone; and litter, everywhere, strewn by two armies: bullets, bottles, biscuit wrappers and the muddy pages of a notebook with lines of poetry scrawled in smudged ink.
, the party ruling the northern region of Tigray. Just weeks after war broke out Abiy’s troops had taken Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, and the prime minister declared victory. But it was illusory. The Tigrayan forces had merely melted into the mountains. In June they returned and routed the Ethiopian army. By early November they had advanced to within 160km of the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, and seemed set to storm it with the help of an allied rebel group, the Oromo Liberation Army.
Even so, the rebels are on the back foot. Their advance into Amhara and Afar allowed them to build their strength with captured fuel, food and weapons. Yet the TPLF failed to break a government blockade of Tigray, which since July has received only 10% of the food needed to prevent famine. With millions at risk of starving, rebel forces cannot afford to bide their time.
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