EUR/USD has continued to find good support despite US 10-year yields reaching 5% and risk sentiment staying unstable. Economists at ING analyze the pa
ir’s outlook ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. Cautious tone The EUR-USD 2-year swap rate differential has remained wide, at -120 bps.
The impact of ECB communication on this differential is generally less significant compared to that of the Fed, and given our expectations for a cautious tone at this meeting with limited guidance provided, we don’t expect material spillovers into FX this month. We expect . The Dollar leg and geopolitical events may well have a bigger say in guiding any short-term trend.
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