The US and EU believe that it is not just their economies but their social and political stability that are at stake.
That was the confident view of George W Bush, the former US president, in the run-up to China joining the World Trade Organization in 2001. A generation later, many in the west have come to the conclusion that time was, in fact, on China’s side.Bush was making a political judgment. He believed that a China that integrated deeply with the global economy would become more open and more democratic. But under Xi Jinping China has become more closed and authoritarian.
The White House sees these policies as crucial to the stabilisation of American society and its democratic system. The motor industry is the most important manufacturing sector in Europe, particularly in Germany, the core of the EU economy. It is also one of the few areas where Europe has real world-leading companies. Three of the four largest car companies in the world by revenue — Volkswagen, Stellantis and the Mercedes-Benz group — are based in the EU.
But the social and political reality is more complicated. The automotive sector provides more than 6 per cent of jobs in the EU, according to the European Commission. This is often well-paid work that looms large in the self-image of countries such as Germany. Seeing those jobs migrate to China would be politically and socially explosive.
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