First Putin, now Xi. Next Trump?
Xi Jinping was welcomed to Duisburg in Germany’s Ruhr valley. He praised the region as a hub for Chinese investment; greeted a train that had spent a fortnight travelling from Chongqing, via Russia, to Europe’s industrial belt; and enjoyed an orchestral performance of traditional mining songs. More recently, another Chinese arrival in Germany received a frostier reception. In February a ship called) firm. As the ship’s name suggests, it is likely to be the first of many.
The new China shock arrives at a terrible time. European industry is still dealing with an energy shock caused by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which began just as national leaders were attempting to accelerate the green transition. Gas prices—usually around €20 per megawatt hour—spiked to more than €300 in 2022, sending electricity prices soaring . A post-covid rebound turned into inflation and an energy crisis. The European Central Bank truce. Trump 2.0 could be much more painful.
Similarly, some foreign firms will want to invest in Europe to be close to customers when trade is difficult. Poland attracted almost €30bn in foreign direct investment in 2021 and 2022, and probably as much in 2023. That is twice the amount it typically received before the pandemic.now makes up 25% of Poland’s capital spending, compared with an average of 5% or so in industrialised countries.
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