EVs Take 21% Share In Germany In Predicted Hangover

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EVs Take 21% Share In Germany In Predicted Hangover
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September saw plugin EVs take 21% share in Germany, predictably down from 32.3% year on year, as a hangover from new incentive cuts.

This is the flip-side of August’s large pull-forward, and fully expected. Overall auto volume wasunits, unchanged YoY, and roughly in line with pre-2020 seasonal averages. The Tesla Model Y was the bestselling EV.

As also mentioned in last month’s report, this is not the end of the affair. January 1st 2024 will bringLet’s look at unit volumes to get a sense of the size of the BEV hangover. In the past 3 years, Germany’s September BEV volumes have been in the range ofIf we look at the sum of the August and September volumes however, BEVs are still up some 55% YoY.

The Opel Corsa, in 3rd, and the 4th placed Opel Mokka, both strongly outperformed in terms of rank, thanks to not dropping September volume as much as the BEV average. The Corsa and Mokka have YTD average ranks of #12 and #18 respectively. Here the Volkswagen ID.4 / ID.5 takes the lead, just ahead of the Tesla Model Y, a reversal of their positions in the April-to-June period. As mentioned above, the Tesla is still 32% ahead of the VW on 2023 YTD volume.

Hyundai group, which was hampered by model refreshes in the prior period , has now recovered to a decent third place, with 10.8% share of the BEV market. Nonetheless, the EV transition still has relative tailwinds. Road fuel prices are close to a 30 year high , whereas electricity prices have come down from the 2022 peaks to close to 2018-2021 levels. This means that the total-cost-of-ownership advantage of plugins, and especially BEVs — compared to ICE vehicles — are significant for those buyers in a position to take a long term view of their spending, or on a long term lease.

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