Iraq's long-running power struggle between rival Shiite camps devolved into bloody street violence this week – the culmination of months of simmering tensions and a political vacuum.
It was a powerful message to al-Sadr’s Iran-backed rivals and the political elite of the cleric’s enduring power over his hundreds of thousands of followers and an equally dangerous example of the damage they are capable of doing to the embattled country.
He has presented himself as an opponent of both the U.S. and Iran and has fashioned himself a nationalist with an anti-reform agenda. In reality, he is an establishment figure with deep influence in Iraq’s state institutions through the appointments of key civil servants. In 2021, al-Sadr’s party won the largest share of seats in October parliamentary elections but not enough to secure a majority in government. His refusal to negotiate with his Iran-backed Shiite rivals on forming a government plunged Iraq into an unprecedented political vacuum now in its tenth month.
In Sadr City, the Baghdad suburb where al-Sadr’s followers are highly concentrated, most complain of inadequate basic services, including electricity in the scorching summer heat. The majority have roots in the rural communities of southern Iraq and have little education. Most face enormous challenges finding work.
With the roots of the political impasse still unresolved, conflict can flare up again. The greatest threat to Iraq’s stability is protracted armed fighting between the paramilitary forces of the rival Shiite camps.
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