After the COVID-19 pandemic stirred
"The Great Recession produced 16 consecutive quarters of declining housing prices, while the pandemic produced the shortest and steepest homebuilding expansion and contraction on record."
Although Utah's housing market fundamentals remain generally "strong," the researchers predict the state's stubborn housing shortage is likely to increase heading into 2024. High interest rates did spur a market contraction and a price correction, but not enough to make homes more affordable for many priced-out Utahns. Mortgage rates are expected to taper slightly in 2024 but remain relatively high. Meanwhile, home prices are also expected to increase next year.
There is some good news, though. Both homebuilding activity and real estate sales are expected to increase in 2024. It appears the decline in home prices is "near bottom," while year-over-year increases are likely in the third and fourth quarters. Home prices are expected to dip only slightly this year, with a 2023 forecast of $500,000 for the median sales price, but that's just 2% below the statewide median in 2022.
Long-term renters will likely face a rental market marred by rising monthly payments and low vacancy rates. The average rent in Wasatch Front counties has increased at a rate of 6.5% to 7% a year since 2011, nearly double the rate of increase to the median income of renters. The average rent in Salt Lake County is now $1,570, which requires a yearly income of $60,000 to qualify.It's tough to predict what will happen with interest rates.
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