Global commodities return to pre-war prices. So why are officials still sounding the alarm for poor countries?
Many of the global prices for food, fuel and fertilizer that spiked when Russia invaded Ukraine have returned to their prewar levels, defying the most dire forecasts even as policymakers warn of the continued risk of famine and financial crisis in the developing world.sent a shock wave through commodity markets. Since then, however, fears that the war would cut off all exports through the Black Sea have proved unfounded.
“The worst didn’t happen. … But there’s a false sense of security in the markets right now,” said Sanjeev Krishnan, the chief investment officer at S2G Ventures, an investment firm in Chicago specializing in food and agriculture. “This fall could have a lot more volatility.” Subsequent price declines have delivered little relief to countries that rely on global markets for key commodities.
Changes in global commodity prices can take 10 to 12 months to filter down to local markets, according to the International Monetary Fund.
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