St. Louis Federal Reserve leader James Bullard expressed optimism on Thursday that the new year could finally bring relief from inflation, adding the risk of a U.S. recession has fallen in recent weeks.
The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee “has taken aggressive action during 2022, with ongoing increases in the policy rate planned for 2023, and this has returned inflation expectations to a level consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target,” Bullard said in material prepared for a presentation before a meeting held by the CFA Society St. Louis. “During 2023, actual inflation will likely follow inflation expectations to a lower level as the real economy normalizes,” he said.
That saw the central bank take its overnight short-term rate target from near zero levels in March to the current 4.25% to 4.50% range. The Fed last lifted that target in December, going up 50 basis points, and it penciled in a move to 5.1% this year. Officials have said wherever they stop with rates they are likely to stay for a while as they ensure inflation pressures are easing.
"The probability of a soft landing has increased compared to where it was in the fall of 2022, where it was looking more questionable," Bullard told reporters after his remarks. "And the reason I think that the prospects for a soft landing have increased is that the labor market has not weakened the way many had predicted" and growth levels rebounded from weakness, he said.
"This is a great time to fight inflation" because of the strong job market, Bullard said, adding "fight inflation now, get it under control, get it back to 2% while you've got the resilient labor market."
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