Six months to the day since the start of the Russian invasion, here is what to expect for the next six months
Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty ImagesPhotograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images1. The war will probably run on for a year at least but is essentially deadlocked and its intensity is lesseningnor Russia are ready to stop fighting, despite the losses they have sustained. Ukraine wants its occupied territories back, and Russia wants to keep inflicting pain not just on its opponent but, by proxy, the west also. The Kremlin believes winter will play to its advantage.
2. Ukraine has no means of effective conventional counterattack, while guerrilla raids are an optimistic way to precipitate a Russian collapse The key presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said the aim was to “create chaos within the Russian forces”, but while this will blunt the invader’s effectiveness, it is not likely it will lead to invaders collapsing in on themselves and voluntarily conceding Kherson, as some Ukrainian officials have hoped.
Russia has no new offensive plan other than to mass artillery, destroy towns and cities and grind its way forward. It does this in part because it is effective, and in part to minimise casualties, having lost, on some western estimates – 15,000 dead so far. It continues to adopt this strategy around Bakhmut in the Donbas but progress is slow, partly because it has had to redeploy some forces to reinforce Kherson.
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