Analysis: Advance of Putin’s war machine through key southern cities likely to have major impact on war’s outcome
reached its outskirts, there have been pitched battles as the city’s airport has changed hands, and as the city’s defenders have manned their barricades, smoke curling above the river from Russian strikes.
An update from the Institute for the Study of War paints the most recent picture of Russia’s ambitions in the south. “Russian troops are likely attempting to bypass Mykolaiv and cross the Southern Bug upriver of that city to permit an advance on Odesa that will combine with an impending amphibious operation against that city … and are driving north from Crimea toward the city of Zaporizhzhia.
Ryan identifies a number of issues to explain why the Russian campaign has been more successful in the south. They include “a significant overmatch of Russian ground forces in the south” compared with Ukrainian forces, overstretched Ukrainian defences across the country, and the fact it is logistically easier to resupply troops from established Russian bases in the Rostov-Krasnodar region over the border.
While the fall of Kyiv – or its negotiated capitulation – is a key Russian war aim, a limited Russian victory in the south alone would still have massive implications for Ukraine. As well as creating a devastating economic stranglehold on the country, it would also limit any western aid flows into Ukraine, while threatening the country’s integrity from three broad geographical directions with Russia likely to claim southern areas it has control of in any future peace negotiations.
In outlying areas of Kyiv such as Bucha and Irpen, close to the biggest concentration of gathering Russian forces, residents have been forced to flee under a steady rain of shells and rockets.