GBP/USD justifies pre-data anxiety around 1.2380 ahead of UK employment numbers – by anilpanchal7 GBPUSD Employment BOE RiskAppetite Fed
talks joined the increasing odds of another Fed rate hike in May, as well as a reduction in the market’s bets suggesting a rate cut in later 2023. The same could be true for the US Treasury bond yields as the US 10-year and two-year bod coupons printed three-day uptrend to 3.60% and 4.20% respectively.
Talking about the data, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 10.8 for April while snapping the four-month downtrend, as well as marking the highest level since July last year. Further, the US National Association of Home Builders housing market index also rose for the fourth consecutive month in April to 45, versus 44 expected and prior reading. Further, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Monday that he wants to see more evidence of inflation settling back to target.
At home, British politics are in play as UK PM Rishi Sunak is accused about childcare declaration as he is up for a awkward dinner with Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Furthermore, the latest warning from the UK’s top security Chief propel geopolitical fears and challenge the GBP/USD bulls. “Lindy Cameron, head of the National Cyber Security Centre , will say that the UK and its allies cannot afford complacency over the ‘dramatic rise of China as a technology superpower,’” reported The Times.
Moving on, UK’s headline Claimant Count Change for March is expected to deteriorate further with -11.8K versus -11.2K prior whereas the ILO Unemployment Rate for three months to February may remain unchanged at 3.7%. However, a likely easing in the average earnings including and excluding bonuses for three months to February could join the anticipated increasing in persons applying for unemployment claims to weigh on the GBP/USD prices.
bears ahead of the key UK statistics. However, the 21-DMA challenges the pair sellers around 1.2375 of late.
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